Lebanon enters final, fierce stage of election
BEIRUT (Reuters) - The final stage of Lebanese parliamentary elections on Sunday will either give a Muslim-led anti-Syrian coalition a firm grip on the reins of power or start a frantic round of horse-trading.
Voting moves north in the fourth round of the first elections in three decades without Syrian troops in Lebanon.
The anti-Syrian bloc of the son of slain Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri, Saad al-Hariri, which swept Beirut three weeks ago, squares up to pro-Syrian figures backed by an erstwhile sowrn enemy of Damascus, former army general Michel Aoun.
Aoun's victory in the Christian Maronite heartlands in last week's polls, five weeks after he returned from exile, stunned the disparate movement whose street protests focused anger on neighbouring Syria after Hariri's killing in February.
Aoun's triumph also hit Saad al-Hariri's predictions that his movement would take two thirds of parliament's 128 seats.
"This is not the final stage of the election, for you and for us it is the last chance to save Lebanon, to reclaim Lebanon and to end tutelage for good," Hariri said this week.
His alliance of Sunni Muslims, Christians and Druze will need 21 of the 28 seats still up for grabs to win the majority needed to rise above Lebanon's sectarian, tribal politics and shape policies away from Syria.
Such a majority would make for the first assembly dominated by anti-Syrian figures since the end of Lebanon's 1975-1990 civil war.
UNLIKELY ALLIANCES
Hariri is likely to fare well among fellow Sunni Muslims, who form more than half of the northerners.
About 45 percent are Christians, but Shi'ite groups will stay out of Sunday's poll as hardly any Shi'ite Muslims live in the north.
If Hariri falls short of a national majority, parliament will be split into three main groups -- his anti-Syrian movement, the pro-Syrian group dominated by Shi'ite Muslim groups Hizbollah and Amal, and Aoun and his followers.
That would likely result in bargaining and shifting alliances as the blocs jostle for the main say over policy.
Aoun shocked many Lebanese with his decision to back the pro-Syrians standing on Sunday, after falling out with his fellow anti-Syrians who were unprepared to give him many seats.
The Christian former general was exiled to France after his "war of liberation" against Syrian forces was crushed in 1990. But he says his opposition to the Syrians ended when Damascus pulled its troops out of its small neighbour in April.
The pro-Syrian list includes former interior minister Suleiman Franjieh, a Maronite Christian with strong clan links there.
Guerrilla group Hizbollah and its allies have 35 seats in parliament after sweeping the mainly Shi'ite south and winning 10 seats in last week's vote in the east.
Voting moves north in the fourth round of the first elections in three decades without Syrian troops in Lebanon.
The anti-Syrian bloc of the son of slain Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri, Saad al-Hariri, which swept Beirut three weeks ago, squares up to pro-Syrian figures backed by an erstwhile sowrn enemy of Damascus, former army general Michel Aoun.
Aoun's victory in the Christian Maronite heartlands in last week's polls, five weeks after he returned from exile, stunned the disparate movement whose street protests focused anger on neighbouring Syria after Hariri's killing in February.
Aoun's triumph also hit Saad al-Hariri's predictions that his movement would take two thirds of parliament's 128 seats.
"This is not the final stage of the election, for you and for us it is the last chance to save Lebanon, to reclaim Lebanon and to end tutelage for good," Hariri said this week.
His alliance of Sunni Muslims, Christians and Druze will need 21 of the 28 seats still up for grabs to win the majority needed to rise above Lebanon's sectarian, tribal politics and shape policies away from Syria.
Such a majority would make for the first assembly dominated by anti-Syrian figures since the end of Lebanon's 1975-1990 civil war.
UNLIKELY ALLIANCES
Hariri is likely to fare well among fellow Sunni Muslims, who form more than half of the northerners.
About 45 percent are Christians, but Shi'ite groups will stay out of Sunday's poll as hardly any Shi'ite Muslims live in the north.
If Hariri falls short of a national majority, parliament will be split into three main groups -- his anti-Syrian movement, the pro-Syrian group dominated by Shi'ite Muslim groups Hizbollah and Amal, and Aoun and his followers.
That would likely result in bargaining and shifting alliances as the blocs jostle for the main say over policy.
Aoun shocked many Lebanese with his decision to back the pro-Syrians standing on Sunday, after falling out with his fellow anti-Syrians who were unprepared to give him many seats.
The Christian former general was exiled to France after his "war of liberation" against Syrian forces was crushed in 1990. But he says his opposition to the Syrians ended when Damascus pulled its troops out of its small neighbour in April.
The pro-Syrian list includes former interior minister Suleiman Franjieh, a Maronite Christian with strong clan links there.
Guerrilla group Hizbollah and its allies have 35 seats in parliament after sweeping the mainly Shi'ite south and winning 10 seats in last week's vote in the east.
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