U.S., France May Pull UNIFIL out, Break 'Hell Loose' in S. Lebanon

Naharnet Beirut, Updated 14 Oct 04, 09:48

Fears are reportedly growing that the U.S. and France may engineer a withdrawal of the U.N. peace force from south Lebanon if the Beirut and Damascus governments remain intransigent against Security Council resolution 1559, which demands a total Syrian military pullout and a timetabled disarmament of Hizbullah. A report in a Beirut daily said Thursday that sources at the Lebanese mission to the United Nations in New York have warned of a Franco-American endeavor in the work to tie the renewal of UNIFIL's mandate next January to the implementation of 1559. The report coincided with the shrill of alarm bells sounded by the former official spokesman and political advisor of UNIFIL, Timur Goksel, who warned that all hell would break loose on the Lebanon-Israel border if the U.N. force is withdrawn. "Hizbullah fighters and Israeli troops look eye-to-eye at the borderline nowadays," Goksel said in an interview published Thursday by Premier Hariri's Al Mustaqbal newspaper. "A UNIFIL pullout will effectively mean that both belligerent sides would have no third party to go to in order to harness an outbreak of violence." Goksel said the United States and France were serious about the enforcement of resolution 1559 and they may take pressure on Lebanon to a higher peak when UNIFIL's mandate comes up for a renewal at the Security Council next January. "The Lebanese should stop dreaming. The Americans and French are serious this time," Goksel said. "As far as UNIFIL is concerned, Lebanon will face one of two options: either a slash-down of UNIFIL's current size by half, or down to 1,000 and this automatically would narrow UNIFIL's area of operations and lessen its effectiveness, or the reduction of its mandate from 6 to 3 months, which is as negative a signal to Lebanon as the scale-down." Goksel cautioned the governments of Lebanon and Syria against minimizing the threat they face in connection with 1559 and the UNIFIL mandate. "It is unwise to turn their backs to the issue." He said Lebanon and Syria made mistakes in the operation of extending President Lahoud's term in office. They should have offered explanations at home and to the International community about the justifications. "Instead, the constitutional amendment and the extension were done inside of 24 hours without any scene-setting." Goksel said France is Lebanon's number one 'international guarantor' and would not abandon the Lebanese, noting that the United States cares more about its Iraq problems than about Lebanon. Goksel is an authority on international relations. He retired from UNIFIL last year but opted to stay on in Lebanon, teaching his specialty in Beirut universities.